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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the perceived challenge of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the duo, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's record holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|